Poisson Counts, Square Root Transformation and Small Area Estimation: Square Root Transformation.

The paper intends to serve two objectives. First, it revisits the celebrated Fay-Herriot model, but with homoscedastic known error variance. The motivation comes from an analysis of count data, in the present case, COVID-19 fatality for all counties in Florida. The Poisson model seems appropriate here, as is typical for rare events. An empirical Bayes (EB) approach is taken for estimation. However, unlike the conventional conjugate gamma or the log-normal prior for the Poisson mean, here we make a square root transformation of the original Poisson data, along with square root transformation of the corresponding mean. Proper back transformation is used to infer about the original Poisson means. The square root transformation makes the normal approximation of the transformed data more justifiable with added homoscedasticity. We obtain exact analytical formulas for the bias and mean squared error of the proposed EB estimators. In addition to illustrating our method with the COVID-19 example, we also evaluate performance of our procedure with simulated data as well.

Thrombohaemorhhagic balance in coronavirus disease 2019 and its management: a perspective.

Coronavirus disease 2019 infection produce a prothrombotic state. This is initiated through multiple pathways and is finally aggravated by cross talks with cytokine storm and neutrophil, platelet, complement activation. All these combine towards the second week of illness to produce thrombosis in the lung capillaries surrounding the alveolus producing characteristic pulmonary dysfunction (PaO2/FiO2 > 300, normal or minimally increased lung compliance and very high d-dimer levels) and a high rate of peripheral venous thrombosis. International and many national guidelines have approached this state in different ways but all emphasized the need for management and prevention of widespread thrombosis. It is felt more aggressive and graded thrombosis prevention and management should be initiated early in the treatment. d-Dimer, neutrophil count, SaO2, fibrinogen levels should be used to control the hypercoagulability. Drugs like statins which have anti-inflammatory action as well as ability to reduce fibrinogen and other clotting factors should be used in the beginning along with antiplatelet drugs and progressively complement activation and neutrophil extracellular traps inhibitors, oral mucopolysaccharides, full-scale anticoagulation along with judicial use of fibrinolysis supporting drugs should be added. In the present review, we have evaluated the various studies and argued the rationality that the anticoagulation in this condition should be initiated early during the infection and should be increased in a graded manner depending on clinical and laboratory progression of the condition until a strong specific antiviral drug for coronavirus disease 2019 infection is available.